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Upturn AI Summary - About
Simply Good Foods Co(SMPL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for SMPL
11/06/2026: SMPL (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
The Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer-focused business centered on the high-protein, low-carbohydrate market through its Atkins and Quest brands. The company's primary strength lies in its strong brand recognition and successful expansion into active-nutrition snacking. Its investment story revolves around capitalizing on long-term consumer shifts toward health-conscious dietary choices. However, the business faces significant risks from intense competition by major food conglomerates and the volatility of ingredient costs. The stock may be a strong fit for growth-oriented investors looking for exposure to the wellness sector, provided they monitor the company's ability to innovate and maintain market share against established peers.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential linked to health and wellness trends but lacks the explosive growth profile of tech-focused equities. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can experience periods of momentum, but this is highly dependent on market cycles and consumer discretionary spending signals. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The valuation often reflects its growth potential, which may not always satisfy strict deep-value criteria. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While it is a stable consumer goods company, exposure to consumer trends and inflation adds a level of market risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock can be sensitive to market shifts in consumer discretionary spending. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | High expectations for growth can sometimes lead to premium pricing that is sensitive to earnings misses. |
| Competition risk (Nutritional Snacks) | High | The company faces constant pressure from large food incumbents and new health-focused entrants. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | Strong brands like Atkins and Quest provide a solid foundation, though the portfolio concentration remains a factor. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Income seekers will not find value here due to the lack of a dividend payout. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the company's ability to innovate and maintain brand relevance in a changing dietary landscape. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -30.69% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.05B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 12 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 12 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.3M shares | Beta 0.07 | 52 Weeks Range 9.38 - 22.00 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.38 - 22.00 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.69 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Atkins Brand | Low-carb meal replacement bars, shakes, and frozen meals. | The foundational revenue stream for the company, catering to weight-conscious consumers. |
| Quest Nutrition | High-protein bars, cookies, chips, and specialty snacks. | A key growth driver targeting active consumers who prioritize protein and low sugar. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-27 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.38 | Actual 0.4 |
Profitability
Profit Margin -11.49% | Operating Margin (TTM) 14.19% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 5.11% | Return on Equity (TTM) -9.57% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 7.93 | Enterprise Value 1.26B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.77 |
Enterprise Value 1.26B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.77 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.93 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.46 | Shares Outstanding 86.86M | Shares Floating 78.75M |
Shares Outstanding 86.86M | Shares Floating 78.75M | ||
Percent Insiders 9.4 | Percent Institutions 103.32 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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