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Upturn AI Summary - About
Expand Energy Corporation(EXE)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for EXE
11/02/2026: EXE (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Expand Energy Corporation is a large-scale U.S. natural gas producer resulting from the strategic merger of industry players. The company leverages an expansive portfolio of high-quality shale assets to drive efficient production and sustainable free cash flow. Its primary growth opportunity lies in capitalizing on increased U.S. LNG export capacity to serve growing global energy needs. However, the company faces risks from volatile commodity prices, potential regulatory headwinds, and the integration complexities of its recent merger. It may suit investors comfortable with energy sector cyclicality who are seeking exposure to a major natural gas producer, though they should monitor post-merger synergy realizations.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely driven by scale and energy price cycles rather than disruptive product innovation. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can exhibit strong price trends during energy cycle upswings. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at valuations reflective of its asset-heavy nature and commodity price cyclicality. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are subject to the inherent volatility of the energy market and commodity prices. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's performance is tied to volatile commodity prices, making it unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Fluctuations in natural gas prices directly impact revenue and profitability. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward the energy sector can lead to significant valuation swings. |
| Competition risk (Natural Gas Producers) | Medium | Intense competition for market share and capital limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company has strong assets but remains an upstream producer at the mercy of markets. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payout sustainability depends on commodity price floors being maintained. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successfully integrating the Southwestern Energy merger is critical to achieving projected cost synergies. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -18.76% | Avg. Invested days 38 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 20.91B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.81 | 1Y Target Price 123.15 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.81 | 1Y Target Price 123.15 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.4M shares | Beta 0.4 | 52 Weeks Range 83.25 - 124.43 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 83.25 - 124.43 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.54% | Basic EPS (TTM) 11.59 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas Production | Extraction and sale of dry natural gas from shale basins. | The primary revenue driver depends on the volume and market price of natural gas. |
| Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) | Sale of NGLs produced alongside natural gas. | Provides a secondary income stream that is correlated with energy and chemical industry demand. |
| Midstream & Marketing | Gathering, processing, and transportation services. | Helps move the product to market, ensuring revenue flow even when production costs vary. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-27 | When After Market | Estimate 1.28 | Actual 1.46 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 21.26% | Operating Margin (TTM) 23.18% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.17% | Return on Equity (TTM) 14.62% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.81 | Forward PE 9.4 | Enterprise Value 25.47B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.61 |
Enterprise Value 25.47B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.61 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.82 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.86 | Shares Outstanding 230.96M | Shares Floating 229.75M |
Shares Outstanding 230.96M | Shares Floating 229.75M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.36 | Percent Institutions 97.14 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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